Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.007076 0.007974 0.008956 0.010112 0.011437 0.012914 0.014688
2024-10-06 0.005577 0.006775 0.008199 0.010027 0.012327 0.015141 0.018874
2024-10-13 0.005014 0.006405 0.008157 0.010546 0.013750 0.017942 0.023917
2024-10-20 0.004289 0.005693 0.007539 0.010175 0.013894 0.019024 0.026772
2024-10-27 0.003775 0.005175 0.007087 0.009928 0.014113 0.020163 0.029780
2024-11-03 0.003449 0.004869 0.006874 0.009964 0.014703 0.021858 0.033795
2024-11-10 0.003282 0.004764 0.006924 0.010373 0.015872 0.024534 0.039692
2024-11-17 0.002997 0.004453 0.006633 0.010218 0.016128 0.025784 0.043396
2024-11-24 0.002797 0.004249 0.006480 0.010254 0.016681 0.027563 0.048239
2024-12-01 0.002570 0.003981 0.006199 0.010046 0.016789 0.028576 0.051817
2024-12-08 0.002454 0.003878 0.006170 0.010251 0.017624 0.030952 0.058287
2024-12-15 0.002305 0.003708 0.006014 0.010219 0.018022 0.032569 0.063496
2024-12-22 0.002086 0.003412 0.005630 0.009763 0.017627 0.032704 0.065845
2024-12-29 0.001952 0.003249 0.005464 0.009689 0.017948 0.034285 0.071554
2025-01-05 0.001921 0.003259 0.005601 0.010187 0.019437 0.038396 0.083556
2025-01-12 0.001766 0.003040 0.005306 0.009831 0.019166 0.038810 0.087118
2025-01-19 0.001643 0.002868 0.005083 0.009593 0.019109 0.039670 0.091895
2025-01-26 0.001567 0.002776 0.005002 0.009628 0.019631 0.041873 0.100398
2025-02-02 0.001541 0.002775 0.005093 0.010020 0.020975 0.046130 0.115030
2025-02-09 0.001452 0.002650 0.004932 0.009871 0.021090 0.047511 0.122214
2025-02-16 0.001392 0.002573 0.004861 0.009907 0.021629 0.049992 0.132960
2025-02-23 0.001311 0.002451 0.004689 0.009706 0.021590 0.051016 0.139673
2025-03-02 0.001276 0.002418 0.004697 0.009904 0.022527 0.054675 0.155069